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Rudy Moser’s Husker Probability Page UPDATED 11/29/09 |
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The 2009 Nebraska Cornhusker Football Season
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Nebraska |
85.4 |
3.16 |
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Results |
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Spread |
Probability |
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Nebraska |
Opponent |
Difference
vs. Spread |
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Florida
Atlantic |
56.02 |
H |
23 |
100.0% |
|
49 |
3 |
23 |
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Arkansas
State |
58.65 |
H |
22.5 |
100.0% |
|
38 |
9 |
6.5 |
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Virginia
Tech |
90.64 |
A |
-5 |
0.0% |
|
15 |
16 |
4 |
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Louisiana
Lafayette |
54.01 |
H |
28 |
100.0% |
|
55 |
0 |
27 |
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Missouri |
76.78 |
A |
3 |
100.0% |
|
27 |
12 |
12 |
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Texas
Tech |
83.8 |
H |
10.5 |
0.0% |
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10 |
31 |
-31.5 |
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Iowa
State |
68.5 |
H |
19.5 |
0.0% |
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7 |
9 |
-21.5 |
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Baylor |
65.95 |
A |
16 |
100.0% |
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20 |
10 |
-6 |
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Oklahoma |
89.13 |
H |
-4 |
100.0% |
|
10 |
3 |
11 |
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Kansas |
73.84 |
A |
4 |
100.0% |
|
31 |
17 |
10 |
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Kansas
State |
70.44 |
H |
16.5 |
100.0% |
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17 |
3 |
-2.5 |
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Colorado |
67.07 |
A |
10.5 |
100.0% |
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28 |
20 |
-2.5 |
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Big
XII (Texas) |
93.85 |
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-8.45 |
27.3% |
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Bowl
Game (???) |
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Average |
25.58333 |
11.08333 |
2.458333333 |
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Std.
Dev. |
16.81916971 |
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Median |
5.25 |
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Ratings
are from Jeff Sagarin Ratings 11/29/09 “Predictor” column is used
Final Record Probability
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Record |
0-12 |
1-11 |
2-10 |
3-9 |
4-8 |
5-7 |
6-6 |
7-5 |
8-4 |
9-3 |
10-2 |
11-1 |
12-0 |
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Probability |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
100.00% |
----- |
----- |
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Expected
Wins (Regular Season): 9
The bar graph shows what portion each record is out
of 100%.
Expanding the Idea and Continuing to Progress
Big XII Conference
Standings Probability
SEC Conference Standings
Probability
ACC Conference Standings
Probability
Big East Conference
Standings Probability
Big 10 Conference
Standings Probability
Pac 10 Conference
Standings Probability
This
website started out with a simple concept; come up with the probability of
winning each game. Then it evolved to
winning the National Championship. This
was fine and dandy when Nebraska was a national title contender every year, but
it did not answer the questions about other final win-loss records, i.e. 11-1,
10-2, 9-3, etc. A calculator program was
created to find out the one loss probabilities, two losses, and so on. So what is the next level? Since we have a percentage to go with each
win-loss record we can now figure out an expected value of wins. However, statistics are generally made so
that they can be compared with other statistics. It is fun to speculate how Nebraska may do,
but what we would really like to know is how Nebraska will do compared to the
rest of the Big XII conference. So I
decided to expand the idea of final win-loss records into conference win-loss
records with other teams around the Big XII North and South. Why stop at the Big XII? Now all the BCS conferences are
represented. What else is there to do?
How
is this done and where does this come from?
Most of
the credit for this page goes to Brad Carlin for giving me the idea. Can you statistically predict the outcome of
the college football season? We will
have to make some assumptions (albeit dodgy ones) in order to do so:
1. The results of games are
predictable.
2. Each game is independent. No one game affects the outcome of other
games.
3. Games follow a normal
distribution (a bell curve)
4. The mean and std. deviation are
constant throughout the season.
5. Jeff Sagarin ratings is a
reasonably good way to determine point spread for an upcoming game.
This
can easily tell us the probability of any game.
Each spread has a certain probability associated with it. All you would have to do then to find the
probability of going 12-0 would be to multiply all the individual game
percentages together. To find the other
record possibilities it was necessary to create a calculator program to add up
all the different one loss combinations, two loss combinations, three loss
combinations, and so forth.
Email Rudy Moser: rudabega1@hotmail.com